陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的空间溢出效应

为了从外部性角度说明目前陕西省交通基础设施的建设和投资在地域上存在的问题，为陕西省交通基础设施建设方向提供理论帮助，基于陕西省2009~2017年间各市相关数据，在交通基础设施对经济增长效应研究的直接效应和溢出效应基础上，加入空间要素，构建生产函数和空间权重矩阵，通过自相关检验（莫兰指数）、LM检验和 Hausman检验，选取合适的空间面板计量模型对陕西省交通基础设施的经济溢出情况进行研究。研究认为，2009~2017年间陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的溢出效应（显著）整体为负，但依然存在正溢出的局部地区，即以西安为首的经济聚集区（西安、宝鸡、咸阳）和榆林、延安联合的陕北经济聚集区，资源过于集中和两个高地之间缺乏互联互通是整体呈现负溢出的重要原因。在地域分配的量和质上应充分考虑交通基础设施的溢出效应，避免资源过度集中在西安，在两个经济高地之间打通一条经济要道，并重点扶持相对落后又有发展前景的城市可促使陕西经济发展由总体集聚向总体扩散转变。     

基于SECI模型的实习教师隐性知识显性化探究

实习教师隐性知识显性化能有效促进实习教师个体教学经验的积累和理论知识的增长，增加教育实习的价值。当下，我国学者对教师隐性知识的研究对象更多集中于资深教师团体。由于实习教师隐性知识外显化缺少必要的机制与条件，所以学者们往往忽略了对实习教师隐性知识显性化的挖掘。SECI模型指知识转化的四种模式，即社会化、外部化、组合化和内部化。与之相对应的有四种场所，分别是创始场、对话场、系统化场和练习场。在此基础上，提出SECI知识转换扩展模型，并从知识创生的四个不同阶段探究实习教师对SECI模型的应用情况。据此，提出相应的教育实习策略，如建立学习共同体、引导实习教师深入反思教学实践、建立有效的学校ICT环境、形成高效且自主的实习教师授课模式等，以促进隐性知识的共享与应用。     

Heating up the debate? Measuring fragmentation and polarisation in a German climate change hyperlink network

Research into polarisation on the internet has so far primarily focused on contentious issues and yielded contradictory results. Shifting the focus to a non-contentious setting, this article combines community detection with brokerage analysis and exponential random graph models to assess the degree of polarisation at different levels of a German hyperlink network on climate change. Although homophily accounts for a moderate degree of polarisation at the top level of the network, the communities reveal that other factors prove more decisive in shaping its structure and the article thus contributes to a more refined understanding of the nature of online polarisation.     

Mediation Role of Dyadic Coping on Parenting Stress and Relational Resilience in Couples

This study aims to explore the mediating role of dyadic coping between relational resilience and parenting stress on married couples. The study participants comprised 229 married couples with at least one child and who have had a major life event. The relational resilience scale, parenting stress inventory, dyadic coping scale and personal information, and life events forms were used to collect data for this study. Data were analyzed with the actor–partner interdependence mediation model. The results revealed that dyadic coping actor–partner effects did not mediate between relational resilience and parenting stress. The results were discussed in relation to the social-ecological model and relevant literature. Based on the current findings, recommendations and implications for further research and practice were also proposed.     

A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

A discrete-time risk model with Poisson ARCH claim-number process

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following an integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process with Poisson deviates. In this model, the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the impact of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on the ruin probability.     

Non-tariff barrier on chicken imports into Russia: Impact on production,trade and prices

We analyze the Russian restriction on chicken imports as an example of a non-tariff barrier (NTB). Cointegration test results support the hypothesis that the NTB limited trade. We calibrate an equilibrium market model to cointegration results to assess the market impact. The tariff equivalent of the Russian chicken NTB is estimated to be 30 − 40% depending on the representation of consumer demand. Removing the NTB decreases domestic production by 4–5% and domestic price by 27%–34%, while imports increase by 326–423 thousand tons annually in 2015–2019.     

Does biomass energy consumption reduce total energy CO2 emissions in the US?

This study investigates the causal relationship between total biomass energy consumption, total energy CO₂ emissions, and GDP in the United States for the period January 1973–December 2016 by employing a directed acyclic graph (DAG) techniques and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, this paper examines the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The result of the DAG reveals that total biomass energy consumption and GDP have a unidirectional contemporaneous causal relationship with total energy CO₂ emissions. Based on the results of the ARDL, we find that a 1% increase in per capita total biomass energy consumption causes a 0.65% reduction in per capita total energy CO₂ emissions in the long-run. This finding implies that expanding the usage of biomass is one way to reduce and control greenhouse gases in the US. Moreover, we find that the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis is satisfied for the US case. Findings from this study suggest that energy policies should stimulate an increase of biomass production for reducing total energy CO₂.     

Toward an emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness: a cross-nation comparative analysis of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour of private sector managers in India and South Korea

ABSTRACT

This Type 4 (emic-and-etic) indigenous cross-case/cross-nation comparative study compares the results of two Type 3 (emic-as-emic) indigenous replication studies of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour carried out within private companies in India and South Korea respectively. The method used was ‘realist qualitative content analysis’ involving inductive open and axial coding. Of the Indian findings 100% were found to be convergent in meaning with 94.43% of the equivalent South Korean findings. This has led to the identification of a two-factor emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness comprised of 16 positive (effective) and 6 negative (ineffective) generic behavioural criteria. These criteria could be used in both countries to critically review and improve extant, or develop new, competency-based management/leadership development programmes. The research findings lend no support to claims that national culture has a major impact on managerial and leadership practices, styles, and effectiveness.